Emphasizing the necessity of defining the Jordanian economic narrative and identity.

A call to adhere to a list of cross-governmental investment priorities. Emphasizing the importance of moving to the concept of a production state instead of a rentier state. Poverty and unemployment are the result of low growth and the inability of economic and investment policies. Demands for quick procedural decisions to move the wheel of the economy. Dozens of laws and legislation need amendment. 

A call to get rid of "futile” government procedures in the investment file. 

Considering government support for universities as "funding for unemployment”. 

Emphasizing the necessity of eliminating any corruption that increases public spending. 

Raising the efficiency of the public sector is an urgent necessity 

A dilemma in moving to the project implementation stage. 

The social system is the first reason for the weakness of women’s economic participation. 

The Jordanian Masarat for Development and Progress held, at its headquarters in the capital, Amman, a closed dialogue session, under the title "The path of economic reform parallel to political reform,” following the confirmation of His Majesty King Abdullah II, during his recent meeting with the President And the members of the Committee to Modernize the Political System said that the political track must coincide with another economic and administrative track, indicating that His Majesty had directed the government to develop a clearly defined economic work program within weeks, linked to specific periods for its implementation. 

His Majesty the King pointed out the importance of the program being in partnership with the private sector to achieve economic recovery as a result of the crisis experienced by the various sectors, and to achieve the levels of growth and employment necessary to move the wheel of the economy and development projects, and to significantly improve the services provided to the citizen. Before that, and during many meetings of His Majesty the King with economists in various sectors, His Majesty reiterated the necessity of carrying out economic reforms in parallel with political reforms, and the need for the government to clarify the mechanisms for developing economic sectors in cooperation with the private sector, according to plans with time periods, to achieve economic growth, employment and improve the services provided. 

For citizens. Introduction: Jordan is experiencing an accumulated difficult economic crisis, which was not the result of current circumstances, but rather resulting from a group of accumulated economic problems, the severity of which was doubled by the Corona pandemic, until it hit the national economy with the worst contraction it has witnessed in 3 decades, and led to unemployment rising to unprecedented proportions. 

It reaches 50% among young people and has caused debt to rise to dangerous levels. The worsening accumulated economic problems, the approaching debt to "red lines,” and the widening rift in trust between the citizen and the government, are all factors that confirm the necessity of defining a comprehensive vision based on the reality of the Jordanian economy, aiming to outline the features of Jordanian economic policies, in a way that contributes to building the identity of the national economy. Clearly. Despite the acknowledgment that many thorny economic issues should be considered, some speak - according to their vision - that Jordan, in the current period, is the closest thing to self-reliance in the country’s history, and that it has made progress on a large number of issues. other; Including education spending, health spending, and a lower crime rate. 

In light of the pandemic, observers believe that the Central Bank of Jordan played its role and used - to some extent - its possible tools to stimulate economic growth, but there is constant concern among Jordanians; As a result of economic indicators in current times, especially concerning cash flows in all its forms, there are also latent concerns about repeating the financial crisis scenario of 1989, and repeating the same scenario in all its difficult manifestations, if the Kingdom does not proceed with the required reform process and implement a radical reform project to avoid this fate. 

On the other hand, the Central Bank confirms that the banking system is strong and solid and all indicators of strength exist, and in terms of monetary stability, the exchange rate of the Jordanian dinar has remained stable since 1995, and the Central Bank’s reserve, which today amounts to $15.9 billion, is the highest reserve level that the Kingdom has reached. In its history, this alleviates the burden of concerns surrounding a crisis that mimics what happened four decades ago. The agreement that solutions are not forthcoming to create a new economic reality in the Kingdom is clear among experts, but that does not mean ignoring research and looking at quick procedural solutions that can be taken in the short and medium term, so that they serve the conduct of the work of the different sectors, each according to its needs, and at the same time. It does not burden the general budget, and does not require legislative amendments that take a long time to complete. 

All of this requires joint work between sectors as a basic necessity for economic reform, while others see that agreeing on what the economic identity of the state is, which is a strategic matter and an urgent necessity to move forward with economic reform and overcome the lack of planning and randomness in the work that brought the economy to where it is today. 

The total public debt amounted to 33.494 billion dinars as of the end of the first quarter of the current year, of which 6.67 billion dinars were carried by the Social Security Money Investment Fund, while the proportion of public debt to gross domestic product reached 106.9% as of the end of the first quarter of the year, and the budget recorded a deficit of 274. million dinars in the same period, according to the government’s general financial bulletin for last April. The unemployment rate rose during the first quarter of this year to 25%, compared to 19.3% during the first quarter of last year, an increase of 22.8%, according to data from the Department of General Statistics in its quarterly report on the unemployment rate in the Kingdom for the first quarter of the year 2021.

As for the absolute poverty rate among Jordanians, it reached 15.7%, amounting to 1.069 million Jordanians, while the percentage of hunger poverty (extreme poverty) in Jordan reached 0.12%, equivalent to 7,993 Jordanian individuals, according to the latest survey on family income and expenditures carried out by the Department of Statistics. Public in the years (2017-2018). According to the department, the general consumer price index (inflation) for the month of March 2020 rose to 102.05, compared to 99.98 compared to the same month of 2019, recording an increase of 2.07%. The rate of contraction in the Jordanian economy reached -1.6% during the fourth quarter of 2020, compared to a positive growth rate of 2.1% in the same period of 2019, according to data from the Department of General Statistics. 

On the other hand, the deficit in the trade balance (which represents the difference between the value of imports and the value of total exports) amounted to 5,888.2 million dinars, recording a decrease during the first eleven months of the year 2020, of 17.8% compared to the same period of the year 2019. The general index of the Amman market decreased. Finance by 13.2% in 2020, and this decline is considered significant compared to previous years. The reason for this is the decline in the index of banks and financial institutions, according to what the Jordanian Strategy Forum explained in its report issued entitled "The Jordanian Economy in 2020.” According to the report, remittances from Jordanian workers abroad decreased during the fiscal year 2020, from 599 million dinars during the third quarter of 2019 to 541 million dinars for the third quarter of 2020. 

The participants in the session discussed the basic joints that govern the economic process, and which should be launched. Of them and work on them in the economic reform project, as they are the basic pillars that play a major role in the desired economic reform, which are: The first axis: economic identity. Defining the identity of the economy is the most important pillar before proceeding with work, so that all capabilities are harnessed to serve and strengthen this identity, and laws and legislation are All systems and procedures serve this narrative and the economic and investment identity that the Jordanians agree upon, as Jordan may not be as it is today. Rather, the economic narrative must be determined according to the capabilities Jordan possesses and what it is capable of implementing. 

Therefore, the investment economic identity is important, and in light of it, Jordan builds what it wants to achieve, and economic priorities are determined based on the nature of the economic identity. In the same context, there are those who believe that what is most important in economic reform is the extent of the harmony of economic policies and the ability to read them and know the path towards which they are heading, the amount of effort expended on the subject of correspondence and communication of economic policies, and the amount of certainty of what is coming with regard to economic policies, in addition to the level of credibility. enjoyed by these policies. There is no doubt that the decision to define the identity and narrative of the economy is an issue shared by everyone, whether the constitutional authorities, the private sector, or civil society institutions, so that sectoral interests are transcended and the larger picture that serves the general national situation is looked at. 

When talking about the economy and determining identity, whether it is a service economy, industry, or anything else, what is important is that the decision be taken by all partners and include the government, the private sector, and the legislative authority responsible for setting the legislative framework, to reach a formula that gives Jordan competitive advantages, but all of this has not been drawn up and determined to date. Without creating competitive value for Jordan's economy to compete with others around it, it will certainly not be able to advance investment. 

The second axis: Investment The importance of the investment axis goes beyond its important role in addressing economic problems, but rather goes beyond that in achieving a greater goal represented by building a spirit of citizenship, as the projects undertaken in the end reflect on society and in the interest of the citizen, provided that they are not tainted by corruption, and make the citizen a partner. In this investment through issuing investment bonds. The importance of investment goes beyond its role in creating job opportunities and improving financial and monetary indicators only, to building a culture that bridges the gap between investment and local communities, and creates a healthy relationship between them based on the exchange of interests instead of the skepticism and hostility that currently exists, so that we get rid of the saying, "Everyone who persists is corrupt until proven.” "The opposite."

In the long term, it is necessary to know what Jordan wants, and here we return to the previous axis, which focuses on defining identity and building the narrative around the economy so that the government is the main player as a regulator, monitor, and networker between all parties, followed by building investment and economic priorities in a way that is consistent with the identity and narrative. 

When looking at the short and medium term, some point out the importance of looking at major projects, and major projects do not necessarily have to be costly to the treasury. There is a list with the government of major projects whose studies have been fully prepared, and they are ready to be put out as bids to the private sector, and they do not need Government funding for their implementation comes from the treasury, but the bidder for these bids is the one who works to finance their implementation, whether by the "BOT” or "BOO” system or other various investment models. 

These measures, in the medium term, may create a real impact that is felt by the citizen. In the short term, the government must start major projects, but Jordan has not started any major project in the last 4 or 5 years, and in terms of investment, there are two project paths: Including immediate projects, which drive the national economy today; Because during the last 100 years, the government was the one that spent and it was the one that consumed, and the approach to financing major projects must be changed, and the private sector has not yet matured to a stage in which it drives the economy in this country, and therefore major projects should be started, and one project should be identified as a beginning. In the context of talking about financing as well, the existing sources of financing in Jordan should be identified. It is the Ministry of Finance, the operating institution for social security, banks, Jordanians, and expatriates. But when talking about the Ministry of Finance as a source of financing, it is not expected to provide financing worth 500, 10, or 20 million Jordanian dinars. Rather, it is expected today to stop internal borrowing, so growth should not be negative, andJordan cannot afford an unemployment rate of more than 25%, and funding sources must be internal. A spirit of citizenship must also be built, by convincing the citizen that there is a large project that will be established in Jordan, which is in the interest of the citizen, and will not be permeated with stories of corruption. 

Therefore, Jordan must follow Egypt’s approach in issuing investment bonds, and build this culture, and this rapid approach is procedural. In this context, there is a problem with half-measures. Today, due to the limited capabilities of the treasury, there is no government capable of financing major projects. However, what is required, after defining the identity and narrative, is to direct the allocated amounts, albeit limited, to the agreed-upon sectors. A government cannot spend all it can save (40-50) million dinars on the IT sector, for example, or allocate 5 million to IT and 4 million to the tourism sector. Rather, a list of priorities must be drawn up, not a wish list. 

When the government spent 10 million dinars on "low cost carriers,” its economic impact became apparent immediately, and was clear before the end of the year. There are other sectors when such sums are spent on them, and the impact of the spending on them appears within (1-3) years. Therefore, a list of priorities should be drawn up and spending should be made accordingly, taking into account the sectors that most employ Jordanians. According to studies, the sectors that employ Jordanians the most are industry and agriculture, and one should also look at the sectors that have the most economic impact. Such as IT and tourism, but there is a need to have a list of priorities and adhere to them without making changes. On the investment level as well, there are those who point out the necessity of realism and understanding reality, and the realization that it is not possible to move forward with investment as long as the decisions related to it are managed in the same traditional way, as they are dealt with sectorally; Therefore, the issue of "changing 38 laws to enable investment decisions to be conducted in the way we think among ourselves” is a realistic statement. Added to this is favoritism in making investment decisions, and therefore the methods or approach of making investment decisions in Jordan should be modified in the long term. There cannot be economic growth without customs reform and without real tax reform, not superficial reform. It is also necessary to review the support that the government spends - not for the citizen - but rather the support that is wasted, and customs and tax reform and other proposals, all of which are procedures or amendments to regulations or amendments to laws that fight bureaucracy, hindering investment and reform of all kinds. 

On the other hand, there is an opinion that focuses on the necessity of facilitating "sterile” procedures in the public sector, as there are many complexities in investment procedures in the public sector, and the low efficiency in this sector is the dilemma that has caused trouble for investors, and the Investment Authority has a great role and responsibility. To improve Jordan's reputation abroad in terms of investment, which contributes to attracting investors. The third axis: The efficiency of the public sector as a result of the weak impact of governments’ work and policies in expanding the size of the economic base, and their failure to move to the concept of a production state instead of a rentier state, and as a result of the weak results of education outcomes in changing society’s culture and maintaining its dependence on the government as an employer, with what was accompanied by the laziness and failure of governments. In the transition from care to production of conciliatory policies as an alternative to real reform in which the individual is a part of decision-making, all of the above served to inflate the size of the public sector, until it reached a sensitive degree and its weight became a burden on the economy. Not only that, but it created a public sector with low efficiency and high cost. 

The value of the public sector salary bill is about 400 million dinars per month, which requires a reform plan that contributes to reducing the size of the public sector compared to the gross domestic product, and increasing their productivity so that they do not remain a burden on the government, investors, and future generations. To address this axis and its outcome, it is necessary to look at the two expenditure items so that current expenditures are reduced and the percentage of their coverage from local revenues is increased, and also to strive to stop waste in public spending, which some finance ministers estimated at 15% of public spending and to devote the concept of transparent budgeting as one of the tools. Democratic governance. The fourth axis is the fiscal deficit and the balance of payments deficit. 

Some believe that the economic reform required is to address the structural economic imbalances that exist in the economy, and there are two clear imbalances in the Jordanian economy: They are the permanent budget deficit and the balance of payments deficit, and each of them requires an economic system to reform, and this is the core of economic reform. In terms of the budget deficit, there are revenues and expenditures, and in terms of expenditures, first, corruption must be identified, and any corruption that leads to increased expenditures must be stopped. It is also necessary to control the growth of current expenditures, and also on the expenditures side, public universities are fully supported, while the second produces generations who cannot find Job opportunities for it, and this requires reform because it is considered "unemployment financing.” Therefore, support for universities must be linked to the performance of university professors, graduates, and administrators working there. As for the revenue aspect, the aspect related to the size of the tax burden has reached its maximum limits, as studies were conducted on the tax burden, which revealed the impossibility of imposing any new taxes. Rather, it is necessary to research aspects of increasing non-tax revenues derived from investment, and the tax evasion that works The government is one of the expected reforms to increase revenues out of the citizen's pocket. Regarding the reforms that should be made to fix the trade balance deficit, we need to focus on imports to address the balance of payments deficit by reducing the trade balance deficit, by reducing imports and alleviating the depletion of dollars leaving Jordan, encouraging Jordanian industries and consumption, and replacing them with imports. 

Corresponding to this is an increase in exports, which is the most important element. Because it brings to Jordan from 7 to 8 billion dollars, and the amount may reach 10 billion dollars, as happened at one time, while imports are worth 20 billion dollars so that the local production base increases in export competitive sectors that contribute to increasing exports and reducing imports. Fifth Axis: Energy The energy sector, as a result of its management separately from the rest of the sectors, is still considered a contributor to inhibiting the wheel of economic growth and limiting the ability of many sectors to develop, including industry, agriculture, water and other sectors. Creating the required shift in the economic scene requires a different treatment of the relationship between the sectors Energy and other sectors in order to raise the competitive value of the different sectors, and also develop solutions to many of the problems resulting from the way the energy file is managed. 

The cost of one kilowatt of electricity is equal to 9 piasters, and it is sold to industry for 26 piasters, and to hospitals as well, and in return for 160 kilowatts, it is sold for 3 piasters, but if electricity is sold to industry at cost (9 piasters), the Jordanian industry will be able to compete with the Saudi and Egyptian industry and others. There are many industries in Jordan, and the same applies to water and other sectors. Sixth Axis: Social Security Funds Investment Fund The Social Security Funds Investment Fund was established in 2003, to be the investment arm of the General Organization for Social Security to increase returns while maintaining the value of assets, enabling the institution to pay its future obligations towards Social Security retirees. The fund started with assets worth 1.6 billion dinars and, as of 3/31/2021, it reached 11.4 billion dinars. 

The fund’s assets will exceed this number in the coming period with the increase in the Amman Financial Market Index. As for the fund’s portfolio, it is distributed 70% between bonds and cash (which is... What is considered high liquidity and low risk), 14% for stocks, 6% for real estate, 3% for loans, and 3% for tourism. The Investment Fund is the Jordanian Fund, and any growth in the Jordanian economy reflects positively on the Social Security Corporation and the Fund. Because growth in the economy raises the fund’s returns and increases security contributions. In this field, the Fund financed - through financial leasing - Ma'an Hospital, rapid transit buses, Tafila Hospital, and the new Amman Customs Center in the Madouna area. 

The Fund is now studying financing school construction projects with the government, which increases the Fund's returns by 7%. Regarding the role of the Investment Fund in economic reform, it looks - in addition to the medium and small projects it is interested in - to infrastructure. Therefore, he worked to establish a company with commercial banks, but there are a set of challenges that the Fund faces in entering and participating in establishing major projects. Among the required reforms is to consider a new way of involving the guarantee in various major projects, of course by the needs and aspirations of the Fund itself and not out of ease of obtaining financing for these purposes. 

It is also useful for the public-private partnership unit to look differently, seeing that involving the guarantee is in the national public interest, especially as the government is moving forward with the establishment of major projects, including the National Water Carrier Project so that the Fund is given preference in such major projects to maximize savings. First, implementing profitable projects. Second, there is a third benefit to the Fund’s contribution to projects. When a foreign investor comes to Jordan and notices that the largest Jordanian investor contributing to projects is the Fund, the investor is reassured and moves forward with establishing investment projects in Jordan. 

As for the capital market, the fund represents about 10.5% of the Amman Financial Market, but it is unable to work and sell shares in the market, and therefore it is unable to make a profit, and all its profits are "book”; Therefore, foreign investors must enter the market to buy long-term shares, so that they are institutional and not speculators. The economy can also be stimulated through the Social Security Investment Fund, by accelerating partnership projects, developing the capital market, amending legislation, and raising the efficiency of the public sector. Seventh Axis: Women’s Economic Participation Jordanian women’s economic participation is at the bottom of the scale compared to the weak countries of the region. The low participation rate of females in the labor market is due to several reasons, namely customs, traditions, and the social system that keep women outside the market. The second reason is legislation. Therefore, this must be addressed in a way that enhances women’s economic participation. The third reason for the decline in women's economic participation is the wrong choice of majors that women enroll in universities. 

When looking at the top 10 university majors studied by Jordanian women and looking at the top 10 majors with high unemployment rates, it becomes clear that women tend to enroll in these majors. Perhaps the solution lies in expanding the base of economic participation for all (males and females), as increasing economic growth automatically leads to women benefiting from this growth, especially since the percentage of workers who are entitled to work in Jordan is only 30% of males and females in general. 

The productivity rate in the economy as a whole is low, which means that the problem is general in Jordanian society and does not exceed 36%, while solving part of the problem of Jordanian women and integrating them into the labor market requires a comprehensive view of reform that affects all segments of society, followed by gender-sensitive policies to achieve Justice and improving the environment to serve women and stimulate their entry into the labor market. With regard to the education aspect, women should be made aware of the necessity of completing their education or choosing specializations required by the labor market, especially since 18% of women marry minors. They should also be made aware of the necessity of joining specializations that are not stagnant or saturated. The eighth axis: Poverty and unemployment. Treating poverty and unemployment first requires recognition that these problems result from low growth and the inability of economic and investment policies. 

Therefore, addressingThe deep and real problems of poverty and unemployment are a matter that takes time. But there are procedures - not decisions that have financial costs to the treasury or decisions that require legislative amendments that take several months to become effective, but rather procedural decisions that can have a significant impact in the short term on some sub-sectors, with a result that is reflected in poverty, unemployment, and various economic indicators. It is not possible to know the quick measures needed by the different sectors, except through those working in the sectors individually. Therefore, the government should hold intensive meetings with workers in all economic sectors. To know the points that should be modified, prepare matrices regarding them, and work to implement them in a way that is in the interest of the sector and improves the performance of the national economy as a whole. 

In the medium term, the economic concern is what the citizen wants and what the decision-maker is looking for, and this includes several factors, but the most important are two factors: They are employment of Jordanians and poverty, which is ultimately reflected in economic and growth figures and other indicators. In this regard, one should look at the sectors that most employ Jordanians and the sectors that most affect the economy and poverty, and which need some support in the medium term. To make a shift in this, this is a possible step. 

There is a similar opinion, which says that any economic obsession that exists today in the government or state, revolves around poverty and unemployment, and today Jordan is facing unemployment, poverty and inflation, and the economic and political elites must begin to be aware of the terms they use in their daily lives (fighting poverty and fighting unemployment). Poverty is Unemployment are two symptoms of lack of economic growth. Today, it is not permissible to continue saying that the economic and political elites want to fight poverty and unemployment, but rather they must call the issues by their names, be clear and frank with themselves and with the citizens, and acknowledge that there is no economic growth, and that the government is unable to create job opportunities for Jordanians, and thus The Jordanian citizen is getting poorer. In this regard, it must be noted that the world has become poorer by 15% during the last year and a half, and it is not known how much Jordanians have become poorer in that period, and foreign flows in the world have decreased by 35% in the last two years, while the only country The one that has maintained foreign inflows is India. Likewise, the Economic and Social Council recently issued a study saying that in order for Jordan to be able to achieve a better investment system, 38 laws must be changed or amended. 

This opinion is realistic if the elites want to call things by their spade, and therefore the elites today must be aware that the required driver is To maintain societal security - which is the state's most important priority - the elites must be realistic about growth rates, and realize that what is required is economic growth. Today, too, decision makers should not continue to address "overheating,” which is the manifestation of lack of economic growth, and therefore it must be said that what is required is economic growth and not the fight against poverty and unemployment. 

Accordingly, one should think about how to stimulate economic growth in light of the decline in global cash flows. (Foreign investments), and in light of the study launched by the Jordanian Strategy Forum, which shows a decline in Jordanian investor confidence to 55%. Therefore, the economic and political elites must be realistic about how to move the Jordanian economy, and one of the foundations, ways, and means of moving the national economy is an investment, but it is one tool among many effective tools in moving the economy. Ninth Axis: Work and Implementation Weak implementation and commitment to plans have been the most prominent over the past years, as decision-makers deliberately postpone important and necessary projects while delaying their implementation generating crises and deepening problems. 

For example, the water crisis that Jordan is suffering from as it is the third poorest country in terms of water. At the global level, this is accompanied by postponement of the national water carrier project, while priority projects should be fast-tracked, so that they are completed within a certain period. Procrastination in implementation is also reflected in the presence of 4 or 5 projects specified in the public-private partnership law. These are the NBN projects (National Broadband Network Program), the Bahrain Transporter project, the rehabilitation of schools, and the rehabilitation of the infrastructure of Marka Airport, in addition to another project in Aqaba, but they have not been implemented yet, and nothing is preventing their implementation, and therefore there is a major defect in Move to project implementation. 

Therefore, economic reform requires seriousness and partnership in work, planning, and implementation, while in the Jordanian economy, each party works individually in a direction and in isolation from other economic institutions, and there is what is called a separate "silo mentality,” and each party thinks within its own framework; Therefore, all sectors must work in high partnership. The former Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, Dr. Ibrahim Seif, the former Minister of State for Economic Affairs, Muhannad Shehadeh, the former Minister of Industry, Trade and Supply, Dr. Tariq Al-Hamouri, the Deputy Governor of the Central Bank, Dr. Adel Al-Sharkas, and the Chair of the Social Security Fund Investment Fund, participated in the session. Kholoud Al-Saqqaf, the Secretary General of the Supreme Population Council, Dr. Abla Amawi, the founder of the "Masarat” Center, the former Minister of State for Information Affairs, Jumana Ghunaimat, and the founder of the "Masarat” Center, the former MP, Wafa Bani Mustafa. 

It is noteworthy that "Jordanian Pathways for Development and Development” is a non-profit civil society organization, founded in 2021, and specializes in issues of enhancing women’s presence in the public sphere and empowering them politically and economically, supporting and stimulating youth participation in political and development work, and developing and strengthening the capabilities of the media to keep pace. Development to be a tool for control and a way to achieve sustainable development and democracy.