The Current Syrian Landscape

What is unfolding in Syria today is a predictable reflection of a complex transitional phase, where conflicting internal and external factors intertwine, resulting in a tense and volatile political scene.

One of the most prominent features of this landscape is the attempt by remnants of the former regime—who still possess influential networks and security apparatuses—to return to the political forefront by exploiting the prevailing chaos and imposing a security reality dominated by force and weaponry.

At the same time, the Israeli entity has been intensifying its direct interventions in Syrian affairs, taking advantage of the country's internal fragility to establish further strategic expansion and positioning. This involves the creation of buffer zones and the establishment of field positions, particularly in the Golan region. This incursion, which goes beyond merely violating sovereignty, aligns with systematic fragmentation and division projects aimed at creating sectarian mini-states that serve long-term Israeli interests.

Against this complex backdrop, it is evident that what has been referred to as the "Coastal Chaos" is merely a reflection of a military rebellion led by the former regime—an attempt to ignite a counter-revolution that ultimately failed. However, the consequences were catastrophic, leading to the deaths of dozens, most of whom were innocent civilians.

What Comes Next: Escalation or Resolution?

As this crisis intensifies, another critical issue emerges: the excessive use of force by the current administration, which is reinforcing a cycle of violence that complicates the prospects for genuine stability. There is a growing concern that this armed conflict, which began as a security rebellion, could evolve into a full-scale sectarian war, particularly given the regime's slow response in regaining control and mitigating its repercussions.

A deeper analysis of these developments forces us to acknowledge the interconnection between internal factors—such as the attempts of the former regime’s remnants to regain influence—and external interventions, primarily Israeli efforts to destabilize Syria. Understanding this complexity necessitates a comprehensive analytical approach that goes beyond simplistic interpretations and helps dissect the geopolitical and on-the-ground dynamics shaping this escalating crisis.

Undoubtedly, the events in the Syrian coastal region are a tragic reflection of both internal and external entanglements. The severe mistakes made in suppressing the failed coup attempt highlight the shortcomings of the Syrian transitional administration, which confronted the rebellion with insufficient precision and professionalism. As a result, the repercussions were devastating, with innocent civilians paying the price.

These mistakes were further exacerbated by the involvement of extremist Islamist factions and former regime loyalists, including senior military officers and security figures from the dissolved institutions. Their participation significantly complicated the situation and escalated the violence to unprecedented levels.

Securing the Gains of the Transitional Phase

Although the new Syrian leadership may have experienced a temporary sense of triumph after thwarting the rebellion, this should not deter it from conducting a rigorous and comprehensive critical review. A thorough evaluation is essential to draw lessons that can help correct the course and prevent similar crises in the future. Preserving the achievements of the transitional phase requires adopting an advanced analytical methodology to reassess political and military performance and develop more mature, strategic, and effective approaches.

It is also crucial to emphasize that blaming the Alawite sect for the former regime’s actions is an unjustified oversimplification. That regime did not represent a single sectarian component but rather embodied a cross-sectarian authoritarian alliance that included Sunni, Kurdish, Christian, Alawite, and Druze figures. The number of those harmed by the regime far exceeded those who benefited from it, making sectarian generalizations a strategic mistake that deepens societal divisions.

This underscores the urgent need for Ahmed Al-Sharaa, as head of the transitional administration, to reconsider the mechanisms of state governance. He must engage national talents from all Syrian sects and communities to build a modern civil state based on justice and equal citizenship. The success of the transitional phase hinges on the ability to transcend factional and sectarian tendencies and solidify a unified national identity.

For Syria... No Regional or Sectarian Biases

The leadership of the Syrian state carries a historical responsibility that necessitates adopting a comprehensive national vision that embraces the aspirations of all Syrians, free from regional or sectarian biases. Given the highly complex regional landscape, it is imperative to remain vigilant against external actors attempting to undermine Syria’s new political experience. Chief among these actors is Iran and its affiliated proxies, who are striving to entrench their influence across Syria.

The recent attacks aimed to destabilize security by setting up ambushes along strategic routes and seizing key urban centers in Latakia, Banias, Jableh, and Tartous, extending towards the Hmeimim Airbase. This was a clear attempt to draw Russia directly into Syria's evolving conflict dynamics.

In the face of significant casualties suffered by the public security forces, and with certain units besieged by pro-regime militias and remnants of the old regime in vital locations—including the Naval Academy in Jableh, hospitals, and security headquarters—the transitional state found itself at a critical crossroads. Government forces in the coastal region were both surrounded and closely monitored, with insufficient manpower to launch an effective counteroffensive.

Funding Suspicions and the Politics of Revenge

The crisis was further complicated by suspicions of Russian and Iranian support for the regime remnants, raising concerns about the potential for a new battlefield reality that could shift the balance of power. Meanwhile, a massive popular uprising in support of the state emerged, driven by a desire for retribution and defense against the attacks, prompting military reinforcements from various regions.

Despite the necessity of military intervention, the state’s reliance on the core force of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which forms the backbone of the Ministry of Defense, exposed a significant shortcoming: the official military structures struggled to maintain control over the battlefield. The influx of irregular and foreign fighters, operating outside an organized framework, resulted in a lack of centralized military planning.

As a result, forces deployed haphazardly across the battlefield in an attempt to break the siege and reclaim strategic areas. This led to widespread chaos and security breakdowns, with old grievances fueling acts of unchecked violence, looting, and theft.

On March 7, social media was flooded with footage of field executions and serious human rights violations, making it difficult to determine the responsible parties amid the disorder. Although the Deterrence Forces had previously demonstrated a high level of discipline during the battle to overthrow the Assad regime, the recent incidents signal the potential for intense international scrutiny and investigations.

Key locations witnessing these violations included Banias, Jableh, Al-Mukhtariyah, Sanobar, and Arza. While initial reports confirm that Banias’ victims were civilians, the social and political backgrounds of the victims in other villages remain unclear.

Iran... A Poisonous Agenda

Iran faces mounting challenges in executing its strategy of fueling chaos in Syria, especially after its failure to incite a civil war by exploiting internal divisions. With this plan faltering, there are growing concerns that Tehran may resort to escalating tensions by targeting Shiite shrines in Damascus. Such an act could serve as a pretext for expanding its military and security presence under the guise of "protecting religious sites."

Iran has previously used religious shrines in Iraq and Syria as a tool to mobilize militias and ignite sectarian conflicts, as witnessed in Iraq following the 2006 bombing of the Al-Askari Shrine in Samarra. Given the current pressure on Iran, it may consider replicating this strategy in Syria to regain influence.

A Historic National Unity Agreement

The Syrian presidency recently reached a landmark agreement to integrate the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) into the state’s institutional framework. This step represents a significant advancement in unifying the nation and reinforcing political and social partnerships.

The agreement, signed by Syrian President Ahmed Al-Sharaa and SDF Commander Mazloum Abdi, guarantees equal representation and participation for all Syrian citizens in political and governmental institutions based on competence and merit. It also reaffirms that the Kurdish community is an integral part of Syria’s national fabric, with full constitutional rights.

Under this agreement, all civilian and military institutions in northeastern Syria—including border crossings, airports, and oil and gas fields—will be integrated under central state administration, ensuring national sovereignty over strategic resources.

To further internal stability, the agreement guarantees the safe and dignified return of displaced Syrians, while protecting their rights and security. It also underscores a collective rejection of sectarianism and fragmentation, instead promoting national reconciliation and the rule of law.

The agreement’s implementation will be closely monitored, with all measures expected to be finalized by the end of the year.