Prepared by: Osama Al-Zaghloul

Introduction

Amid the escalating pace of developments in Yemen and the continued clashes between the conflicting parties, the Yemeni crisis has once again come to the forefront of the regional political landscape, reflecting an increasingly complex interplay between domestic factors and surrounding regional and international developments.

These developments are unfolding within a highly sensitive regional and critical international context, coinciding with the repercussions of the US–Iran war, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the continuing war of genocide in the Gaza Strip. They also coincide with the positions adopted by the Ansar Allah movement regarding regional developments, particularly the ongoing conflict between Iran on the one hand and Israel and the United States on the other.

Yemen has experienced internal conflict and external intervention since 2011, including the intervention of the Arab Coalition forces in 2015, followed by the de-escalation process initiated in 2022 and subsequent developments, most notably the prisoner exchange in 2023. In recent years, developments in Yemen have also become increasingly intertwined with the broader regional context, particularly following Ansar Allah's involvement in the regional confrontation after the outbreak of the war in Gaza and its adoption of positions supportive of Iran.

A significant development in the current situation is the escalation of clashes between the Yemeni government and the Ansar Allah movement (the Houthis), coinciding with the announcement by Rashad al-Alimi, Chairman of Yemen's Presidential Leadership Council, of mobilization for a military operation under the slogan “Dawn of Yemen,” aimed at restoring control over areas held by the Houthis.

This development has brought the Yemeni conflict back to the forefront of regional attention, given its potential implications for regional security, maritime navigation, and the existing balance of power within Yemen. These developments coincide with the US–Iran war and the continuation of the war in the Gaza Strip, making the escalation in Yemen part of a broader regional security environment.

The recent escalation is also linked to developments affecting air traffic, airports, and maritime navigation, as well as subsequent statements and positions issued by Ansar Allah concerning the targeting of airports and the connection of such actions to the wider regional confrontation. These developments are shaped by a range of overlapping strategic considerations, including the desire of regional and international actors to reshape the Yemeni political and security landscape and limit the influence of Iran and its regional affiliates, alongside growing concerns regarding Ansar Allah's role in threatening maritime security and international trade.

At the same time, these developments are closely associated with the domestic strategic calculations of Yemen's competing parties, each seeking to strengthen its political and military position ahead of any potential new settlement. Accordingly, the renewed escalation in Yemen cannot be understood as an isolated domestic development; rather, it must be examined within the broader interaction between Yemen's internal conflict and regional and international strategic calculations.

This escalation could have several significant implications:

1. Reshaping the balance of power within Yemen, potentially altering the relative political and military positions of the parties involved.

2. Affecting prospects for a return to de-escalation, thereby influencing the possibility of reviving negotiations and advancing a political settlement.

3. Generating potential repercussions for maritime security in the Red Sea and international trade, particularly in light of the strategic importance of regional shipping routes and their connection to global economic stability.

Strategic Calculations of Domestic Actors

The distribution of power and influence within Yemen is shaped by a range of political and military actors that possess varying degrees of influence and the capacity to affect the course of domestic developments. Foremost among these is the Yemeni government, led by Rashad al-Alimi, alongside the Joint Operations Room and its affiliated military forces and formations. The Yemeni Congregation for Reform (Al-Islah Party) represents one of the most prominent political components supporting the government, given its political presence and extensive networks of influence within Yemen's political landscape.

Militarily, the government relies on several allied forces and military formations, primarily the National Army and the Giants Brigades (Al-Amaliqa Forces), which possess significant military capabilities and maintain influence across several southern regions. These are complemented by the National Resistance Forces and local tribal groups, which play an important role in supporting military operations and securing areas under their influence. Collectively, these forces constitute key components of the anti-Houthi camp, although their capacities to influence the trajectory of the conflict and the future distribution of territorial control in Yemen vary considerably.

On the other side, the Houthis represent a major center of military power and influence, possessing substantial coercive capabilities and controlling extensive sections of the coastline. They exercise authority over territories under their control, including major population centers. Their alliances also include a faction of the General People's Congress and networks of armed tribal groups.

Following more than a decade of conflict with the Houthis, the Yemeni government seeks to regain territorial control and bring the political and military confrontation to a decisive conclusion. Its objectives include restoring state institutions, extending the authority of the internationally recognized government across the entire national territory and Yemen's cities, recapturing the capital, Sana'a, from Houthi control, and ending regional security threats attributed to the Houthis, including attacks targeting neighboring countries such as Saudi Arabia. The government also seeks to safeguard international maritime routes in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab Strait and establish the state's exclusive authority over weapons and the use of armed force.

For their part, the Houthis seek to consolidate their influence along the coastline, a development with implications for international trade and the Yemeni economy. In response to the government's military operation, Ansar Allah leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi rejected any prospect of retreat or surrender. He linked attacks against Saudi facilities and airports to what he described as an “economic and military blockade,” while threatening to continue retaliatory actions and target the interests of coalition countries. He also emphasized regional coordination with actors within the so-called “Axis of Resistance” and accused the United States and the United Kingdom of providing direct military and logistical support to his opponents. Furthermore, he maintained the principle of “sovereignty” over the airspace and entry points under Houthi control, a position reflected in the requirement for prior authorization for humanitarian flights.

The Yemeni Congregation for Reform (Al-Islah Party), meanwhile, sees no viable prospects for reconciliation with the Houthis and aligns itself with the Yemeni government's position. It considers supporting the government a priority at the current stage, based on its political interests and the preservation of its political position, which characterizes Houthi actions as a coup against legitimate authority. Al-Islah's spokesperson announced the party's support for the military operation and called for national unity around state institutions. He further linked the operation's success to the unification of military decision-making under the Ministries of Defense and Interior. The party has also participated in the national political coalition aimed at coordinating political mobilization.

Following the fragmentation of the Southern Transitional Council, the Giants Brigades are regarded as the third-largest military force in terms of personnel, troop strength, and external support. They maintain control over sections of the southern coastline, an area of considerable geopolitical significance.

In analytical terms, if the competing forces are broadly divided into two principal camps, the Yemeni government and its allied actors—including Al-Islah as a significant political and popular force and the Giants Brigades as a major military component—seek to recover territories they have lost and reestablish their authority over them. Conversely, the Houthis seek to consolidate their control over coastal areas and leverage their influence over maritime navigation as a means of exerting strategic and political pressure.

Strategic Calculations of Regional Actors

Regional states play a significant role in shaping developments in Yemen through their political, military, and logistical support for domestic actors. Consequently, the interests and strategic calculations of these regional powers constitute fundamental factors in determining the trajectory and future of the conflict. Among the most prominent actors are the Arab Coalition, led by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, on the one hand, and Iran on the other, as the two regional powers most closely associated with the balance of power in the Yemeni conflict.

First: The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Arab Coalition

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia stands at the forefront of the Arab Coalition. Its strategic interests center on achieving a stable and unified Yemen that does not constitute a threat to its national security or that of the Gulf states, while simultaneously limiting the military capabilities of the Houthis and curbing Iranian influence in Yemen.

Saudi Arabia's strategic calculations are primarily shaped by security, economic, and regional considerations. Securing the Kingdom's southern borders represents a fundamental priority, particularly given the attacks targeting Saudi territory and critical infrastructure over recent years. Moreover, stability in Yemen is closely linked to security in the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait, considering the region's strategic importance for international trade, energy transportation, and maritime navigation.

At the regional level, Saudi Arabia seeks to prevent Yemen from becoming an advanced sphere of Iranian influence along its southern borders. Accordingly, it supports the Yemeni government and anti-Houthi forces while employing its political and economic influence, together with its regional diplomatic relationships, to shape the course of the crisis.

Saudi Arabia and the Arab Coalition possess a range of instruments of influence, including political, economic, and military support, as well as established relationships with various Yemeni actors and the capacity to influence negotiation processes. Nevertheless, the coalition's ability to achieve its strategic objectives remains contingent upon its capacity to navigate the complexities of Yemen's domestic political and military landscape and to address the Houthis' relatively expanding military and political capabilities.

Second: Iran

Iran represents the principal regional counterweight to the Arab Coalition. Maintaining its influence within Yemen and strengthening the position of the Houthis as a major actor in the country's political and military landscape constitute two of Tehran's most important strategic priorities.

Yemen's strategic importance to Iran stems from its geographical location and its potential influence over security in the Gulf, the Red Sea, and international maritime routes. The presence of a strong Iranian ally in Yemen provides Tehran with the capacity to exert indirect pressure on Saudi Arabia and offers an additional strategic bargaining instrument in regional political and security dynamics.

Iran relies primarily on its relationship with the Houthis and its political and military support for the movement, thereby contributing to the preservation of their capabilities and position within Yemen's political and military balance. The continuation of this influence provides Tehran with strategic flexibility in its interactions with regional adversaries. Nevertheless, the effectiveness of this influence remains contingent upon the Houthis' ability to maintain their domestic position and on broader developments in regional relations.

Implications of Regional Rivalry

The competing interests of Saudi Arabia and Iran have transformed Yemen into an arena of regional rivalry that extends beyond the boundaries of its domestic conflict. Consequently, the future trajectory of the Yemeni crisis depends to a considerable extent on the level of support provided to domestic actors by regional powers and on these powers' ability to influence the balance of power within Yemen.

Furthermore, the continuation of regional rivalry imposes significant security, political, and economic costs on the parties involved and further complicates efforts to achieve a sustainable settlement. This is particularly relevant given the interconnectedness of the Yemeni conflict with broader strategic issues, including Gulf maritime interests and the global energy trade.

Conversely, any shift in Saudi–Iranian relations, whether toward de-escalation or renewed confrontation, could directly affect the course of the Yemeni crisis. Regional rapprochement may create opportunities to support a more substantive political process, whereas continued rivalry could reinforce Yemen's position as an arena of competing regional interests.

Accordingly, the future of the Yemeni conflict is determined not only by the balance of power between the government and the Houthis but also by the willingness of regional powers to move beyond managing the conflict through their domestic allies toward supporting a political settlement capable of establishing greater stability. Such a settlement would contribute to preserving Yemen's territorial unity and preventing its territory and maritime corridors from becoming a permanent arena of regional confrontation.

Yemen’s Natural Resources and Economy

Yemen is considered a strategically important country due to its energy resources and significant geopolitical location. It possesses oil and natural gas reserves that provide potential for the country to develop and strengthen its position as an energy exporter. In addition, its geographical location holds considerable strategic significance, particularly in relation to regional security, international maritime navigation, and global trade routes.

Oil and Gas in Yemen’s Political and Economic Landscape

Yemen possesses estimated oil reserves of approximately 3 billion barrels, while its natural gas reserves are estimated at around 16.9 trillion cubic feet. These resources hold considerable strategic importance, as they represent significant potential sources of public revenue and foreign exchange earnings. The importance of oil reserves lies in their potential to generate revenue through production and exports, thereby providing the state with financial resources to fund public services and government institutions. Furthermore, the presence of oilfields, transportation pipelines, and export terminals enhances the economic and political significance of the regions in which these facilities are located.

Natural gas, meanwhile, holds strategic importance that extends beyond its value as an export commodity. It can also be utilized for electricity generation, industrial production, and domestic consumption, making it a resource capable of contributing to alleviating Yemen's energy crisis and supporting the country's long-term economic development.

Most of Yemen's commercially viable oil and natural gas resources are concentrated in areas outside Houthi control, particularly in Marib, Shabwah, and Hadhramaut. Marib hosts major oil and gas fields and associated infrastructure, while the Masila Basin in Hadhramaut contains some of Yemen's most prominent oilfields. Shabwah, meanwhile, possesses significant oil resources and is home to the Balhaf liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility.

Conversely, the Houthis control extensive areas of northern and western Yemen, including major ports along the Red Sea. Nevertheless, the largest concentration of Yemen's oil and gas production fields remains outside their areas of control.

Oil and natural gas resources have consequently become integral components of the struggle for political and territorial influence. Production fields, oil and gas facilities, transportation networks, and export terminals have evolved into strategically significant assets for competing parties. Disruptions to production and exports have deprived the state of a substantial portion of its revenues, undermining its capacity to finance public services and rebuild government institutions, while simultaneously increasing the economy's dependence on a limited range of revenue sources.

These resources have also intensified competition over Marib, Shabwah, and Hadhramaut, as these regions combine substantial economic value with strategic geographical importance. At the same time, control over export terminals and maritime access points has become an integral element of the strategic calculations of domestic and regional actors. Consequently, the value of Yemen's energy resources is no longer determined solely by the size of its reserves, but increasingly by the ability to access production areas, control energy infrastructure, and benefit from the revenues generated by these assets.

Accordingly, although oil and natural gas have not been the sole causes of the Yemeni conflict, they have become major sources of power and influence, as well as instruments for financing the conflict. The management of these resources and the distribution of their revenues will therefore constitute critical factors in any future political settlement. This is particularly significant because resource-sharing arrangements are directly linked to the balance of power, the structure of relations between central and regional authorities, the state's capacity to finance its institutions, reconstruction efforts, and the achievement of a degree of economic and political stability.

The Commercial and Strategic Importance of the Bab al-Mandab Strait

The Bab al-Mandab Strait represents one of the world's most important maritime corridors due to its location at the junction of the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, and the Indian Ocean, as well as its direct connection to trade routes linking Asia and Europe through the Suez Canal. An estimated 12% of global trade passes through this strategic corridor, which also serves as a major route for transporting oil and natural gas, accounting for no less than 10% of global energy shipments, alongside the movement of goods between Asian and European markets.

This geographical significance grants Yemen a highly strategic position in international trade and energy transportation. Its geographical proximity to and position overlooking the Bab al-Mandab Strait directly link the country's political and security stability to the safety of one of the world's most vital maritime routes. Any security disruption in the strait could affect shipping movements, increase transportation and insurance costs, and compel shipping companies to redirect their maritime routes. These potential consequences further reinforce the geopolitical importance of Yemen's location.

The significance of the Bab al-Mandab Strait extends beyond commercial considerations to encompass the strategic calculations of regional and international powers. Actors exercising influence over territories overlooking or situated near the strait possess greater capacity to affect maritime security and international trade and energy routes. Consequently, the Bab al-Mandab Strait has become an integral component of the strategic calculations of competing forces within Yemen. It also constitutes a major factor explaining regional and international interest in the country's stability and its internal balance of power.

Accordingly, Yemen's geographical position provides it with strategic importance that extends beyond the size of its economy and the value of its natural resources. Its political stability and maritime location have become integral elements of the broader regional equation governing trade and energy security. Conversely, the Yemeni state's inability to capitalize on this geographical advantage economically and politically, or the continuation of internal divisions and armed conflict, could transform this potential source of economic strength into an arena of regional and international competition.

Ultimately, the Bab al-Mandab Strait constitutes one of Yemen's most significant geopolitical assets. Its strategic importance means that any settlement of the Yemeni conflict will necessarily have implications extending beyond Yemen's domestic political landscape, given its direct connection to international maritime security and the strategic interests of regional and global powers.

Potential Scenarios

First Scenario: Continued Instability and Conflict Without a Decisive Resolution

This scenario assumes the continuation of the conflict in Yemen without any of the parties involved achieving a definitive military or political victory, resulting in a prolonged period of instability with no clearly defined timeframe for resolution.

The persistence of the conflict could generate several economic repercussions, most notably its potential impact on global oil prices due to concerns regarding the security of energy supplies and maritime navigation. Furthermore, competition over oil resources and production areas would likely continue, along with associated economic opportunities and future contracts related to oil exploration, extraction, and the resumption of operations in Yemen's petroleum sector.

Second Scenario: Reaching a Partial Political Settlement

This scenario assumes that the conflicting parties, either through direct negotiations or with the involvement of regional and international mediators, succeed in reaching a partial agreement or a limited political settlement that leads to de-escalation and the cessation of certain military operations, without necessarily achieving a comprehensive and final resolution of the conflict.

Such a scenario could provide an initial framework for the gradual restructuring of Yemen's political, security, and economic conditions, potentially creating opportunities for further confidence-building measures and subsequent political arrangements.

Third Scenario: Escalation of the Conflict into a Comprehensive Regional Confrontation

This scenario envisages an intensification and expansion of hostilities in Yemen beyond the boundaries of the domestic conflict, potentially developing into a broader regional confrontation.

Such an escalation could have direct implications for Gulf security and regional stability, as well as international maritime navigation and trade, particularly given the strategic significance of the maritime corridors associated with the region.

Most Likely Scenario

The author considers the first scenario—continued instability and conflict in Yemen without a decisive resolution—to be the most likely outcome. This assessment is based on the difficulties associated with reaching a comprehensive agreement among the conflicting parties, particularly given the substantial differences between the demands of domestic actors and their divergent political and military calculations.

Furthermore, the multiplicity of regional interests associated with the Yemeni conflict makes achieving a definitive resolution increasingly complex, especially as certain regional powers seek to maintain a balance of power that prevents any single party from imposing a unilateral settlement.

Accordingly, the author anticipates the continuation of a low- to medium-intensity conflict, characterized by intermittent cycles of escalation and de-escalation, alongside persistent competition over natural resources and strategically significant locations. The absence of decisive positions by major international powers aimed at ending the conflict further complicates prospects for a comprehensive settlement, making such an outcome difficult to achieve in the near term.

Issued by Jordanian Masarat for Development and Progress